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GTAP Resource #1748

"Disaggregating the health sector in MONASH for forecasting and policy."
by Giesecke, James and Mark Picton

The health sector in Australia is, like the health sectors of most countries, large and growing. It had an annual average real growth rate of 4.5% over the last decade. As demand grows, with changes in demographics and in technology, even more will be expected in the future from a health care system that is fragmented, and perceived to be inefficient and ill prepared.

Despite the importance of the health policy choices we face, Australia does not currently possess the modelling infrastructure required to help us choose the most effective and equitable options. There has been almost no systematic approach in Australia to modelling the health system, its interaction with the broader economy and the impact of the system upon the distribution of costs and benefits (either by region or the socio-economic status of the population). Rather, policy has been based upon ad hoc and partial analyses or, in some cases, upon no systematic evaluation of the evidence. Policy makers have been frustrated by a lack of adequate tools to help them assess the effectiveness and impact of possible policy changes.

This is an infrastructure-building part of a long-term collaborative project. Adding structure and detail to the health industry in the MONASH model of the Australian economy will provide the capacity to undertake systematic forecasts and policy analyses of the health sector.

The existing MONASH health sector will be split into a number of sub-sectors, including public and private hospitals, pharmaceuticals, general practitioners and medical specialists. Forecast and policy simulations will be undertaken and analysed.

Australian Bureau of Statistics input-output and other data. Other data sources include Commonwealth and state government health departments and specialist health economists.

Anticipated findings
Whilst this is a preliminary stage of an ongoing research project it will yield findings about the impact of demographic and technical change in the health sector on government as well as the economy as a whole.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2005 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 8th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Lübeck, Germany
Date: 2005
Created: Picton, M. (5/1/2005)
Updated: Picton, M. (5/1/2005)
Visits: 2,873
No keywords have been specified.

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