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GTAP Resource #2419

"A Closer Look at the IMPACT of Climate Change on Country-Level Food Security and Nutrition"
by Msangi, Siwa and Mark Rosegrant

Global projections for increasing food demand combined with increasing change and variability of climatic conditions point towards greater stress on food systems and their supporting ecosystems. In many parts of the world, increasing variability of climatic conditions and rainfall are being observed, leading to longer and more severe weather events, or periods of drought. Accompanying the world’s steady population growth is an increasing demand for food and the necessary feedstuffs to fuel the requisite increases in livestock production. The combination of these two trends will inevitably lead to greater stresses and demands on the natural resource base and eco-systems that underlie the world’s food production systems. The challenge for developing countries, in particular, is to enhance the resilience of their national food systems and to protect vulnerable populations – both in terms of their livelihoods as well as through maintaining their access to necessary nutrients.

In this paper we utilize the global food and water policy modeling framework of IFPRI’s IMPACT-WATER model to simulate alternative scenarios for trade liberalization and climate change, in order to examine the impacts on agricultural commodity markets as well as on food and nutrient availability. We make use of household-level food consumption data that enables us to generate a more disaggregated demand system at the country-level, so we can examine the calorie and nutrient availability changes for various income strata within both urban and rural populations. A highly-disaggregated global map of rainfed and irrigated crop production is combined with a global hydrological model, to allow for direct linkages between climate-driven changes in water availability and crop yield potential. By doing so, we are able to see the effects of environmental conditions across irrigated and rainfed production systems, and determine the attendant impacts on market equilibria and nutritional outcomes.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2007 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 10th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Purdue University, USA
Date: 2007
Created: Msangi, S. (4/16/2007)
Updated: Batta, G. (4/16/2007)
Visits: 2,751
- Climate change policy

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