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GTAP Resource #3922

"Spatially-Explicit Modeling of the Intensive and Extensive Margins of Land Use in Agriculture"
by Villoria, Nelson B.

One of the most important and contentious issues in the global land use debate is how to model the conversion of forests, grasslands, pasture and natural lands to cropland. Searchinger et al. (2008) assumed that new cropland would follow the conversion pattern observed at the continental scale in the previous decade. This is intuitively appealing, but intellectually dissatisfying. Another approach used simulated biophysical productivity to determine which land is most likely to enter agricultural production. This is the approach taken by Eickhout et al. (2009). This is appealing, as it brings to bear the economic concept of land supply, and captures the relative availability of land across countries. However, by aggregating lands into a national supply schedule, it eliminates sub-national differentiation. Hertel et al. (2010a) address this limitation by disaggregating Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZs). In their framework, the global land use impacts of a given policy responds to the relative economic returns to land in crops, pasture and forests. This is more satisfying intellectually, but their approach suffers from two important limitations associated with the use of a constant elasticity of transformation (CET) functional form.

The first limitation of the CET is that the land cover supply decisions are assumed to be equal across land cover types, negating the possibility that, for example, pasture land can be more responsive than forest to changes in rental rate. The second limitation of the CET specification is the need for an ad hoc productivity adjustment to satisfy the adding up condition for physical hectares that remains a source of frustration for many users of the GTAP-BIO model.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2012 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 15th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Geneva, Switzerland
Date: 2012
Created: Villoria, N. (4/30/2012)
Updated: Batta, G. (1/17/2013)
Visits: 1,184
- Calibration and parameter estimation

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