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GTAP Resource #5081

"Assessing Sustainability of Biofuels Production in China"
by Birur, Dileep, Ashok Chapagain, Stephen Devadoss and Paudel Krishna

International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that biofuels have the potential to contribute sustainably from their current global share of 3% to about 27% of total transportation liquids by 2050. China projected to be the source of nearly half of the world oil demand growth till 2035 (IEA, 2014). With its policy initiatives on renewable energy for transportation, China is currently the third largest producer of biofuels in the world next only to Brazil and the United States. The objectives of this study are to assess the impact of China’s biofuels production on (i) food supply and food prices, (ii) land use change and water needs, and (iii) greenhouse gas emissions. To accomplish these objectives, we use a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model called GDyn-E-BIO model with explicit first and second generation biofuels sectors. Using these results on AEZ level change in cropping pattern from the CGE model, we follow Chapagain and Hoekstra (2011) approach to estimate the water footprint (WF) of biofuels production. We further distinguish the sources of water footprint as the green (rainwater), blue (surface and groundwater), and grey (freshwater pollution) water footprints. Our empirical results indicate that it is possible to meet the stated mandate without substantial impact on food supply or water needs.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2016 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 19th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Washington DC, USA
Date: 2016
Created: Birur, D. (4/15/2016)
Updated: Birur, D. (4/15/2016)
Visits: 2,369
- Dynamic modeling
- Renewable energy
- Land use
- Water availability
- Agricultural policies
- Asia (East)

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