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GTAP Resource #5334

"Economic Insights into Telecoupling: Lessons from China's Soybean Boom"
by Yao, Guolin, Thomas Hertel and Farzad Taheripour

China's soybean demand boom in the past two decades has been very dramatic. It involves socioeconomic and environmental interactions of multi-coupled systems. Economic growth and restructuring of feed industry intensified China's soybean meal demands. Brazil, as well as Argentina and the US, stepped in to satisfy this increased demand. In the case of Brazil, rapid technical change, coupled with expansion in cultivated area, played a key role in meeting the increased soybean demand in China. The goal of this research to is to identify the key economic drivers of this historical growth in soybean trade, output and land use in Brazil, China, and the US over the period of 2004-2011 and quantify their contributions using the GTAP-BIO model. This period provides a very interesting laboratory in which to test the validity of this model, as well as to decompose the diverse drivers of growth in soybean trade. With a validated historical model in place, we plan to project future soybean production and trade changes and investigate the role which China's agricultural policy and genetically-modified (GM) technology have played in the historical development of soybean trade through counterfactual simulations.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2017 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 20th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, West Lafayette, IN, USA
Date: 2017
Created: Yao, G. (4/15/2017)
Updated: Batta, G. (11/9/2017)
Visits: 2,860
- Model validation and sensitivity analysis
- Land use
- Trade and the environment
- Economic growth
- Technological change
- Agricultural policies

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