GTAP Resources: Resource Display
| GTAP Resource #6141 |
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"Estimating the Economic Impact of COVID-19: A Supply Side Analysis" by Narayanan, Badri and James Villafuerte Abstract Using a static simulation of a standard GTAP model, the paper analyzes the effects of : 1) increased trade costs from border restrictions; 2) reduced productivity from lockdown and community quarantine; and 3) enhanced health care services and subsidy to consumers and producers from the Government. Two scenarios were explores, the first a short containment scenario where the outbreak is controlled within 3 months with limited impact on tourism receipt, consumption and investment growth, and production disruption; and a second a longer containment where the outbreak is controlled within 6 month with deeper impact on tourism receipts, consumption and investment growth, and production disruptions. The simulation results that the global impact of COVID-19 ranges from $2.5 trillion to $4.9 trillion or -2.8% to 5.4% of GDP. The impact for Asia is about half of the global impact or from $1.2 trillion to 1.9 trillion or -3.7% to -5.8% of GDP. |
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- Dynamic modeling - Health - Technological change |
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If you have trouble accessing any of the attachments below due to disability, please contact the authors listed above.
Public Access  Paper (620.1 KB) Replicated: 0 time(s) Policy Brief (2.6 MB) Replicated: 0 time(s) Policy Brief Appendices (576.3 KB) Replicated: 0 time(s) Presentation (2.8 MB) Replicated: 0 time(s)Restricted Access No documents have been attached. Special Instructions Presentation |
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Last Modified: 9/15/2023 2:05:45 PM
