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GTAP Resource #6593

"Exploring the impacts of shorter food supply chains on rural jobs in the EU – a model-based analysis"
by De Jong, Beyhan, Kirsten Boysen-Urban, George Philippidis and Robert M'barek

Covid-19 has highlighted the vulnerabilities of the global food systems and reminded us about the importance of resilient supply chain. Despite of the rapid action of the private and public sector to limit the stress of the pandemic, all stages of the food supply chain have still being challenged (OECD, 2021). One way to make supply chains more resilient is to make them shorter and regional. While shorter food supply chains (SFSC) can help to mitigate the risk of disruptions, they can also increase the prosperity of rural areas. We would accordingly expect SFSC to promote rural livelihoods by increasing agricultural employment.

With this exercise, we aim to explore how the European farming sector would be impacted from shortening EU food supply chains. In our model-based analysis, we will focus on the net impact of SFSC on agricultural employment at the EU regional level to see in which regions and sectors job gains and losses can occur. We will employ the Modular Applied GeNeral Equilibrium Tool (MAGNET) model, a state-of-the-art multi-sector, multi-region recursive dynamic CGE model (Woltjer and Kuiper, 2014). Consumer preferences will be changed towards local production. In a second step, the national trends from MAGNET will be linked in a top-down fashion to assess the impact of SFSC at the regional level. Detailed agriculture employment data at the NUTS2 level for the EU will be taken from Eurostat (Eurostat, 2021). After mapping food and agricultural sectors in MAGNET and Eurostat, we will apply the shocks coming from MAGNET to the regional employment data at the EU level.

Our aim is to assess the net impact of shortening EU food supply chains on European farmers by focusing on a number of employment indicators. We will be looking into different rural areas and farming sectors within the EU to identify potential job creations, changes in wages and gender participation in the agricultural workforce.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2022 Conference Paper
Status: Not published
By/In: Presented during the 25th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis (Virtual Conference)
Date: 2022
Version: 1
Created: De Jong, B. (4/15/2022)
Updated: De Jong, B. (5/30/2022)
Visits: 556
- Agricultural policies
- Economic geography
- Supply chains
- European Union

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