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GTAP Resource #7145

"Irrigation Policy: Water Use and Socioeconomic Contributions in Brazil"
by dos Santos Fachinelli Ferrarini, Angel and Joaquim Bento Ferreira-Filho

This study analyzed how the expansion of irrigation would affect water demand and regional socioeconomic impacts, considering two scenarios. The TERM-BR model was used to simulate expansion scenarios in irrigated areas for 2040. The expansion of irrigated areas would increase real wages and household consumption, while leading to a reduction in food prices. The national GDP is projected to increase by 0.30% and 0.36% by 2040, representing an impact of R$ 39,124 ($8,066) billion and R$ 47,417 ($9,776) billion accumulated by 2040, at 2023 prices. Water use would increase by an additional 52% in simulation 1 (24,310 Mm³ or 771 m³/s) and 66% in simulation 2 (30,577 Mm³ or 970 m³/s) by 2040, as an accumulated variation relative to the baseline. Data on household consumption reveal that reductions in food prices would be more significant for lower-income families compared to wealthier families. These results through out from increased agricultural production which would expand food supply, reducing relative prices, with larger effects on crops with higher irrigated productivity compared to rainfed crops.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2024 Conference Paper
Status: Not published
By/In: Presented during the 27th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis (Fort Collins, Colorado, USA)
Date: 2024
Version: 1
Created: dos Santos Fachinelli Ferrarini, A. (4/5/2024)
Updated: dos Santos Fachinelli Ferrarini, A. (5/31/2024)
Visits: 104
- Water availability
- South America

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