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GTAP Resource #7158

"Health Impacts of Carbon Neutrality in China under Different Technology Pathways"
by Gao, Da, Chenfei Qu, Bin Zhao, Da Zhang, Shuxiao Wang and Xiliang Zhang


Abstract
China's 2060 carbon neutrality goal requires a major socio-economic shift and diverse emission-reducing technologies, including more non-fossil energy and negative emission technologies. Identifying a universally accepted carbon neutrality pathway is complicated by policy and technology uncertainties. This study examines the health impacts of China's carbon neutrality pathways, focusing on the use of different mitigation technologies.

The study uses the China-in-Global Energy Model (C-GEM), a model tailored to China’s economy and energy system, to simulate outcomes under three technology pathways, integrating significant zero and negative emissions technologies. It estimates sector-specific air pollutant emissions and simulates PM2.5 concentrations and radiative forcing changes using the WRF-Chem module within the Weather Research and Forecasting model. Health benefits are assessed based on improved air quality and temperature reduction.

Findings reveal that carbon neutrality significantly improve air quality, with a pathway relying primarily on renewable energy promoted as it generates the largest net benefits. Compared to pathways that mainly relies on carbon capture or bioenergy, it leads to the most substantial reduction in PM2.5 concentrations and thus yields the largest health benefits. However, the study also notes trade-offs between cost-effectiveness and distributional equity, with the pathway relying primarily on renewable energy placing a greater burden on the poor than a pathway that relies primarily on carbon capture, due to the former’s larger shift from the traditional heavy industries to new industries. Therefore, it is necessary to introduce simultaneous policies to address the transformation costs that will occur in vulnerable groups.




Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2024 Conference Paper
Status: Not published
By/In: Presented during the 27th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis (Fort Collins, Colorado, USA)
Date: 2024
Version: Draft for the GTAP conference
Created: Qu, C. (4/6/2024)
Updated: Qu, C. (5/28/2024)
Visits: 74
- Climate change policy
- Sustainable development
- Partial and general equilibrium models
- Asia (East)


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