GTAP Resources: Resource Display
| GTAP Resource #7340 |
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"Structural change in the Australian economy, 2011 to 2023: An Historical CGE Analysis" by Dixon, Janine Abstract We run a CGE simulation of the period 2011 to 2023 to elucidate recent changes in technologies and tastes that have taken place in the Australian economy with special emphasis on employment classified by occupation and educational attainment. We use VUEF, a recursive dynamic CGE model of the Australian economy calibrated to include employment by occupation at the ANZSCO Minor Group level, a classification that identifies 97 occupations. Results from the historical simulation are used in a forecast simulation for the Australian economy, again with particular focus on employment classified by occupation and educational attainment, but the focus of this paper is structural change observed over the historical period. Over the historical period (2011 to 2023), the Australian economy grew by 33 per cent, with household demand accounting for a declining share with growth of 27 per cent, and government final consumption growing by 63 per cent. Growth in aggregate investment was relatively weak at 19 per cent and the trade balance moved toward surplus. Employment (hours) grew by 15 per cent. While output per hour of employment grew over the historical period, assuming a fixed rate of return on capital the macroeconomic results points towards a low contribution from multifactor productivity, with real wage growth over the period (10 per cent) instead driven by capital deepening. This is evident because a strong increase in the terms of trade (31 per cent) meant that although wage growth was reasonable relative to the CPI, labour costs grew very little relative to the price of GDP (32 per cent). Overall we conclude that the period 2011 to 2023 is characterised by low overall productivity growth, with low growth in domestic household and investment expenditure. However, the economy was by no means stagnant, with taste and technological changes, particularly in manufacturing and the occupational composition of employment. |
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- Labor market issues - Technological change |
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Public Access  Paper (415.5 KB) Replicated: 0 time(s)Restricted Access No documents have been attached. Special Instructions No instructions have been specified. |
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Last Modified: 9/15/2023 2:05:45 PM
