GTAP Resources: Resource Display
| GTAP Resource #7590 |
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"Geoeconomic Shifts, Trade Wars, and Global Sustainability: A Dynamic CGE Analysis of US-China-EU Impacts" by El Hajoui, Yassine, Adil EZ-ZETOUNI and Nabil El Baouchari Abstract Everyone eagerly awaits November 4, 2024, when the European Commission is expected to definitively increase tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles if negotiations with China yield no results. This decision is more closely related to the U.S. elections than any other reason. Indeed, the rise of Kamala Harris and the continuation of Biden's anti-China policies may push the European Union to take this measure, which could trigger a trade war between the Western bloc, led by the United States, and the Eastern bloc, led by China. On the other hand, if Trump returns to the White House, his protectionist policies, which do not distinguish between enemies and allies, could drive the European Union closer to China (Belt and Road Initiative), leaving the United States almost alone against the Eastern bloc strengthened by the European Union's adhesion. This article aims to analyse these two scenarios to understand their respective impacts on the economies in conflict by using a dynamic multi-regional computable general equilibrium model based on the PEP w-t celebrated with the GTAP 11 database and the updated CEPII 2022 scenario. The simulation results of the first scenario reveal an almost absolute superiority of the Eastern bloc, particularly in the automotive sector (the declared cause of the conflict). Indeed, this sector in China experienced a growth of +19.99% compared to the baseline scenario. At the same time, the West, particularly the European Union, saw a contraction in this industry of -15.56% compared to the base scenario. Regarding the implicit objective of this conflict, namely 'slowing down China's economic rise', the results indicate that it fails, as the Chinese economy is expected to surpass that of the United States by 2030. |
| Resource Details (Export Citation) | GTAP Keywords | ||||||||||||||||
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- GTAP Data Base and extensions - Economic geography - Supply chains - Dynamic modeling - Global |
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Public Access  GTAP Resource 7590 (6.5 MB) Replicated: 0 time(s)Restricted Access No documents have been attached. Special Instructions No instructions have been specified. |
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Last Modified: 6/23/2025 2:25:40 PM
