GTAP Resources: Resource Display
| GTAP Resource #7887 |
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"Recursive-dynamic CGE modeling to assess systemic risks from nature degradation" Authors: Johnson, Justin Abstract Recursive-Dynamic CGE Modeling to Assess Systemic Risks from Nature Degradation Biodiversity loss and ecosystem-service degradation pose systemic economic risks largely absent from standard climate–economic scenarios (Dasgupta, 2021). Global targets like the Kunming-Montreal Framework constrain land allocation, affect productivity, and alter comparative advantage, yet macroeconomic models rarely represent these dynamics. Most IAMs include climate damages but omit biodiversity (Nordhaus, 2017, 2019), systematically underestimating risks. In CGE models, land is typically represented via AEZs and CET structures. Extensions like GTAP-AEZ and GTAP-BIO improved land heterogeneity (Hertel et al., 2009; Taheripour et al., 2010; Golub et al., 2013), but ecosystem services remain unmodeled. Recent coupling efforts—GTAP-InVEST (Johnson et al., 2023, 2025), GTAP-SIMPLE-G (Wang, 2024), and SEALS (Johnson & Thakrar, 2024)—begin bridging this gap. This paper develops a spatially explicit, recursive-dynamic Earth–economy framework coupling GTAP-RD-AEZ with SEALS land-use downscaling and InVEST ecosystem-service models. Economic projections drive gridded land-use allocation; InVEST models pollination, carbon sequestration, water quality, erosion control, timber, fisheries, and coastal protection at fine resolution. Outputs are aggregated into region- and sector-specific productivity and capital shocks fed back into the CGE model. The framework operates under NGFS scenarios, comparing climate-only with climate–nature pathways through 2050. Results show ignoring nature understates GDP losses, obscures regional vulnerabilities, and misses non-linear tipping-point risks. Spatial heterogeneity reveals concentrated biodiversity dependencies in agriculture, forestry, fisheries, and coastal systems driving macroeconomic and trade impacts—providing a foundation for next-generation scenario analysis for policymakers, central banks, and researchers. |
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- Climate change policy - Ecosystem services and biodiversity - Environmental policies - Land use - Renewable energy - Water quality - Multi-scale and geospatial modeling |
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Public Access  GTAP Resource 7887 (744.3 KB) Replicated: 0 time(s)Restricted Access No documents have been attached. Special Instructions No instructions have been specified. |
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Last Modified: 4/30/2026 12:56:16 PM
