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GTAP Resource #1290

"Feasible GTEM Baselines of the World Economy for the Next 100 Years"
by Pant, Hom, Brian Fisher and Vivek Tulpule


Abstract
What are the possible ‘business-as-usual’ growth rates of the world economy for the next 100 years and what are the likely patterns of regional growth? The answers to these questions are important for many reasons, principal among them is that the world and regional economic growth rates are primary factors determining global emissions growth rates that are expected to drive future climate change and the growth in the size of future markets for commodities depends much on the growth rates of regional economies and hence are interesting to both investors as well as producers. This paper addresses these questions using the intertemporal version of ABARE’s Global Trade and Environment Model (GTEM). In particular the paper concludes that although there seems to be no restriction on the growth rate along the balanced growth path, there are limits to economic growth that are driven by region and factor biased technical progress and factor accumulation.


Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2003 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 6th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, The Hague, The Netherlands
Date: 2003
Version: 1
Created: Pant, H. (5/1/2003)
Updated: Bacou, M. (12/18/2003)
Visits: 3,370
- Dynamic modeling
- Baseline development


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