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GTAP Resource #1469

"A General Equilibrium Analysis of Climate Change Impacts: Methodology and Early Results"
by Roson, Roberto


Abstract
A Computable General Equilibrium Model is used to assess how specific shocks, induced by the climate change, propagate into the structure of the world economy, determining distributions of costs (and benefits) among industries and regions.
Previous research on this issue has not fully taken into account the role trade linkages in the determination of the burden distribution.
This paper illustrates how the CGE model has been calibrated at future years, to create reference benchmarks, and how climatic effects are translated in terms of variations of economic variables in the model.
Benchmark calibration entails forecasting future values for some exogenous variables, like endowments in labour, capital, land and natural resources. We used a dynamic CGE model and an impact assessment model to this purpose.
Three applications are presented and discussed. Effects of sea level rise are simulated through losses in the land stock and extra investment on coastal protection. Effects on health are simulated by changes in the labour productivity and by variations in the public expenditure. Effects on tourism are simulated by changes in consumption patterns and inter-country income flows.
In some cases, simulations entail setting new values for exogenous variables and parameters. In many other cases, a swapping between endogenous and exogenous variables is needed, or a change in the structure of the basic GTAP model. In particular, we obtain interesting results for changes in the standard mechanism for the allocation of international investments.


Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2004 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 7th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Washington DC, USA
Date: 2004
Version:
Created: Roson, R. (4/30/2004)
Updated: Roson, R. (4/30/2004)
Visits: 2,819
No keywords have been specified.


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