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GTAP Resource #2798

"Global Climate Change and its Distributional Impacts"
by Bussolo, Maurizio, Rafael De Hoyos, Denis Medvedev and Dominique van der Mensbrugghe

Climate change has the potential to be the major social and economic challenge over the next century—with the aggregate economic impacts largely overshadowing other major global economic issues such as trade policies and international migration. To put the magnitudes in perspective, a report issued 2006 compiled results from 18 models of the global economy that had average carbon emissions at around 10 gigatons in 2025 in the baseline or business-as-usual scenario. The average carbon tax in 2025 to achieve an overall limit on temperature change from these models is $100 per ton of carbon. Thus the revenues from carbon taxes, on a global level, would be around $1 trillion in 2025 and rising over time. Estimates of damages from climate change, though varying widely across studies, range up to 20 percent of GDP, with the mode at around 1-2 percent of GDP [to be verified]. There is also the possibility of tipping points—leading to uncontrollable climate change—such as a sudden release of greenhouse gases (GHG) stored in permafrost, for example, or the collapse of Antarctic ice sheet. Beyond the aggregate effects, the impacts of climate change and policies to mitigate GHG emissions will vary widely across and within countries. Most studies have focused on the cross-country distributional impacts—one of the objectives of this paper is to provide an overview of the within country impacts by linking a global economic model with a global micro-simulation model based on a comprehensive compilation of country-based household surveys.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2008 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 11th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Helsinki, Finland
Date: 2008
Created: van der Mensbrugghe, D. (4/16/2008)
Updated: Medvedev, D. (6/20/2008)
Visits: 2,565
No keywords have been specified.

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