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GTAP Resources: Resource Display

GTAP Resource #3030

"Lessons from Using Historical Data to build a Macro Baseline for the Dynamic GTAP Model"
by Walmsley, Terrie and Anna Strutt


Abstract
The development of a baseline scenario is an important component for assessing the impact of a policy issue using a dynamic model. A baseline depicts how the economy might be expected to change, over a given period of time, if the policy were not implemented. For the GDyn model, the baseline scenario should therefore reflect as closely as possible the changes expected to occur in the world economy, excluding the particular policy of interest. However building a baseline which reflects expected changes in the world economy is a difficult task. Moreover, the choice of baseline can affect the results of the policy simulation (Adams and Parmenter, 2000).

In light of the difficulties of creating a baseline for the GDyn model, previous baselines (Walmsley, 2006) have focused on obtaining a few key macroeconomic projections for real GDP, population, and skilled and unskilled labour; and key policies which have already been agreed upon or are expected to affect the regions/sectors or the policy scenario being examined. Another approach developed by Dixon and Rimmer (2002), which has been used in developing baselines for numerous single country models, uses a series of simulations (historical, decomposition and forecasting) to develop a baseline scenario.

In this paper we hope to use some of these techniques to improve upon the GDyn baseline. We concentrate on the macro baseline by incorporating historical changes in Real GDP, consumption, government, labor, land, employment and investment.


Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2009 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 12th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Santiago, Chile
Date: 2009
Version:
Created: Walmsley, T. (4/14/2009)
Updated: Walmsley, T. (8/30/2011)
Visits: 3,033
- Dynamic modeling
- Asia (East)
- Asia (Southeast)


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