GTAP Resources: Resource Display
| GTAP Resource #3071 |
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"EU-India FTA: Potential Implications for Low Income Economies " by Raihan, Selim Abstract This paper provides an analysis on welfare, macroeconomic and trade impacts on a number of low-income economies as a result of a proposed bilateral FTA deal between the EU and India. A global general equilibrium modelling technique is applied for the analysis. A simulation of a scenario depicting a full FTA between India and EU is conducted. It appears that the EU-India FTA would result in welfare gains for both India and the EU. In absolute terms, the gains of EU would be much higher than that of India. However, in terms of share in GDP the gains of India would be much large than that of EU. India’s welfare gain is mainly driven by the gain in terms of trade, whereas, EU’s welfare gain is primarily because of gain in allocative efficiency. All the low-income economies under consideration would experience loss in welfare, and the welfare losses for the South Asian countries are much higher than the other low income economies in Asia and Africa. Bangladesh would appear to experience largest loss in welfare in absolute value, whereas rest of South Asia would incur largest loss in terms of share in GDP. The welfare losses of these low-income economies are mainly driven by the loss in terms of trade. Most of the low income countries under consideration would experience fall in exports both in the EU and Indian market mainly because of loss in preferences and diversion of trade in the EU and Indian market. However, the pattern of export loss is different for different countries. Countries like Bangladesh and Pakistan would suffer from larger export losses in the EU market compared to the Indian market whereas for Sri Lanka and rest of South Asia the impacts will be just the opposite. Most of the other low-income countries would however experience larger loss in exports in the EU market. |
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- Economic development - The GTAP Data Base and extensions - Asia (East) - North America |
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Public Access  GTAP Resource 3071 (456.7 KB) Replicated: 0 time(s)Restricted Access No documents have been attached. Special Instructions No instructions have been specified. |
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Last Modified: 9/15/2023 2:05:45 PM
