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GTAP Resource #3134

"Development Strategy in the Context of Climate Change: The Case of Ethiopia"
by Arndt, Channing, Sherman Robinson and Dirk Willenbockel

This study develops an economy-wide framework for analyzing economic impacts from climate change and potential adaptation policies for Ethiopia, a country that is heavily dependent on rain-fed agriculture. A comprehensive review of the literature on the likely evolution of climate for Ethiopia (or the broader region) underlines the high levels of uncertainty associated with climate change. A stochastic modelling framework is employed. Results point to three channels where climate change has substantial impact on economic growth. The first involves reductions in average agricultural yields due to less favourable growing conditions. The second involves reductions in the rate of process improvement due to the demands of adaptation. The third involves the possibility of destruction of capital stocks due to an increased probability of extreme events. On top of this analysis of averages, analysis of the variability of the components of GDP indicates that aggregate consumption always has a higher coefficient of variation (CV) than the other macro aggregates. The burden of adjustment appears to fall more heavily on consumers. Poor consumers are likely to experience increased vulnerability.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2009 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 12th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Santiago, Chile
Date: 2009
Created: Robinson, S. (4/16/2009)
Updated: Robinson, S. (4/16/2009)
Visits: 2,864
- Economic development
- Climate change policy

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