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GTAP Resource #3275

"The Economic Impact of H1N1 Pandemic in Taiwan-A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis"
by Chang, Chin-Hsiue, Hsing-Chun Lin, Ching-Cheng Chang and Shih-Hsun Hsu

This research estimates the potential consequences a second wave outbreak of H1N1 on macro-economy and individual industries of Taiwan. Literature review and the experience with the 2003 SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, SARS) outbreak also provide the exposure data about how and to what extent an outbreak affects economic activities. Four dimensions are included in our scenario designs. First, the outbreak occurs during the autumn and winter seasons. Second, the attack rates are assumed to be 26%~50% and fatality rates 0.6%~1.3% respectively as suggested by previous studies. Third, the vulnerability of consumption and export are based on the comparison of the attack rate and fatality rate with those of the previous SARS outbreak in Taiwan. Fourth, the labor market supply constraint caused by workers. Absence from elementary school closure and prophylactic absenteeism is introduced.

The Taiwan computable general equilibrium model (TAIGEM) is used to simulate the overall and sectoral economic impact of the pandemic with a database compiled from the 2004 Input-Output Table. The simulation results indicates that if the pandemic is confined within the 50% attack rate and 1.3% fatality rate, then the impact on real GDP and labor demand is around -1.41% and -1.72%. Once the attack rate and fatality decline to 26% and 0.6% by introducing mitigations, the real GDP and labor demand would contract by -0.55~-1.13% and -0.70~-1.41%, respectively. As for the individual sectors, the outbreak not only affects the service sectors, the manufacturing sector is also affected indirectly due to trade disruptions. The government agencies have already invested in manufacturing vaccines and procurement of antivirus drug. A cost-benefit analysis is thus carried out using the simulation results to evaluate the effectiveness of the vaccination policy and other alternative measures.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2010 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 13th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Penang, Malaysia
Date: 2010
Created: Chang, C. (4/14/2010)
Updated: Chang, C. (5/27/2010)
Visits: 2,549
- Domestic policy analysis
- Software and modeling tools
- Asia (East)

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