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GTAP Resources: Resource Display

GTAP Resource #3317

"Doha Round Impacts on India"
by Raihan, Selim and Bazlul Khondker


Abstract
This study examines the effects of Doha agreement for India in a sequential dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) framework. Simulation results suggest that agricultural liberalization under the Doha round would have very little effect on Indian GDP. The welfare effects are positive and the effects are stronger in the long run. All the household categories appear to gain positive real consumption growth and welfare. Poverty falls for all household categories both in the short and long run. The NAMA scenario would lead to a rise in real GDP despite the fact that a number of manufacturing sector would contract. All the household categories would experience fall in real consumption and welfare because of the fact that their fall in nominal income is much higher than the fall in CPIs. Poverty indices would rise for all household categories and the households relying more on non-agricultural capital income as well as on unskilled labour income would experience higher incidence of poverty. The full Doha scenario would lead to rise in real GDP in the short run and the effect is stronger in the long run. In the short run, the aggregate welfare declines. However, in the long run the negative effect on welfare appears to be very minimal. In the short run, all household categories would experience fall in real consumption and welfare because of the fact that their fall in nominal income is much higher than the fall in CPIs. However, in the long run, for some household categories the fall in income would be lower than the fall in CPIs, and therefore they would experience rise in real consumption. A full Doha scenario would result in a rise in poverty indices for all household categories in the short run, though the long run effects are much less pronounced, and in fact for some household categories, poverty indices decline in the long run.


Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2010 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 13th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Penang, Malaysia
Date: 2010
Version:
Created: Khondker, B. (4/15/2010)
Updated: Khondker, B. (4/15/2010)
Visits: 2,227
- Economic analysis of poverty
- Climate change policy
- Asia (East)


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