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GTAP Resource #3381

"IMF Macroeconomic Impacts and Development Outcomes for Low Income Countries: First Exploration of Macroeconomic Links to Ethiopia and Ghana Distribution and Poverty Models"
by Evans, H. David

This strategic draft of a paper first outlines a new area of policy orientated research on the IMF Macroeconomic Impact on LIC Development Outcomes, an area of research that has challenged policy makers within the IMF and within the development community for a long time. The preliminary results for Ethiopia of a “soft link” from macroeconomic scenarios presented in an IMF Article IV report to a recent general equilibrium comparative static CGE model of distribution and poverty are reported. There are four key ideas in this project, to be applied to first African LIC countries:

1. To “soft link” currently available IMF macroeconomic models to available income distribution and poverty models to provide estimates of poverty outcomes of IMF macroeconomic policies.

2. Where macroeconomic models are unavailable, to upgrade the quality of the macroeconomic “rapid appraisal” case studies built around IMF Letters of Intent and Article IV reports so that macroeconomic scenarios can be soft linked to income distribution and poverty models.

3. Where the database for income distribution and poverty models is not available, develop a “rapid appraisal” approach to estimating income distribution and poverty impacts using a wide range of readily available structural and poverty indicators. (See below on “rapid appraisal”).

4. Should the structural data assembled under 3 be comprehensive enough, consideration will be given to building small to medium sized SAMs that can be used to build structural income distribution and poverty model as in 1.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: GTAP Application
Status: Not published
Date: 2010
Created: Evans, H. (4/15/2010)
Updated: Batta, G. (6/10/2010)
Visits: 2,991
No keywords have been specified.

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