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GTAP Resources: Resource Display

GTAP Resource #3564

"Copenhagen and Cancun: the cost of the new EU GHG mitigation policy"
by Bosello, Francesco, Ramiro Parrado, Fabio Eboli, Lorenza Campagnolo and Elisa Portale

With the adoption by the EU parliament in June 2009 the so-called “climate and energy package” now defines the mitigation and energy strategy for the EU until 2020. It requires a reduction of the 20% of GHG emissions respect to 1990 levels by 2020, a 20% share of energy from renewables on total energy consumption, an improvement of 20% of energy efficiency compared to the 2020 BAU. These commitments could become more ambitious should other countries join the EU in similar mitigation efforts. Against this background the EC released in 2010 the Communication: “Analysis of options to move beyond 20% GHG emission reductions and assessing the risk of carbon leakage” investigating costs and economic implications of moving the EU mitigation target toward a 30% reduction. Indeed the recent developments during COP 15 in Copenhagen and COP 16 in Cancun could justify this stricter commitment.
The present research proposes a similar assessment, but richer in detail than that offered by the EU document. By developing and applying a recursive – dynamic CGE model with energy generation from renewable sources explicitly modelled, we estimate the cost for the different EU countries and industries of the 20-20-20 and of the 30-20-20 policy packages. We contrast these costs under unilateral EU actions and under shared action within a “Copenhagen-like” framework, we discuss different competitiveness concerns for the EU energy intensive industries and finally we investigate the role of border tax adjustments or of free allocation to reduce adverse competitiveness effects. The benchmark of the model incorporates the recent economic crisis and its medium-term effects.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2011 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 14th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Venice, Italy
Date: 2011
Created: Bosello, F. (4/14/2011)
Updated: Bosello, F. (4/14/2011)
Visits: 2,253
- Climate change policy
- Dynamic modeling
- European Union

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