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GTAP Resource #3794

"Climate Change Impacts on Tourism in the Mediterranean"
by Roson, Roberto and Martina Sartori

The European FP7 project WASSERMed addresses issues of water availability and climate change in the Mediterranean, using a multidisciplinary approach. In this context, a general equilibrium model based on the GTAP dataset is used to assess the macroeconomic consequences of water availability on two strategic sectors for the Mediterranean economies: agriculture and tourism.
This paper illustrates the findings obtained in WASSERMed about impacts on tourism. The methodology is based on a bottom-up strategy. A micro-model has been developed, forecasting tourism flows on the basis of (among other variables) a Tourism Comfort Index, taking into account a mix of climate variables, like temperature, sunlight, precipitations, humidity, wind. This model is used to forecast changes in tourism flow at the reference year 2050. To this end, climate scenarios based on downscaled regional climate models, produced by the WASSERMed project, are used.
Variations in the number of tourists are translated into changes in total tourism expense and interpreted as exogenous shocks in a conventional CGE model. Therefore, simulation exercises can be conducted to assess the macroeconomic-wide effects of changing tourism patterns. In addition, as the general equilibrium model employs satellite data on water consumption, it is also possible to assess the impact on water resources, to shed some light about conflicting uses of water, especially between agriculture and tourism.
The model can also be used to estimate virtual water flows, that is water implicitly "embedded" in international trade flows. This helps in highlighting how water availability determines comparative advantage and how water scarcity can be partly alleviated through a better allocation of resources....

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2012 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 15th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Geneva, Switzerland
Date: 2012
Created: Roson, R. (4/19/2012)
Updated: Roson, R. (4/19/2012)
Visits: 2,548
- Europe (Southern)

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