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GTAP Resource #3937

"Effects of environmental and energy policies on long run patterns of land use"
by Golub, Alla, Thomas Hertel and Steven Rose


Abstract
In light of higher fossil fuel prices, concerns about energy security and global warming, considerable attention has been devoted to biofuels in recent years. Stimulated by policies, production and use of biofuels have grown, and are expected to continue to grow to meet future US and European policy targets. The large scale production of biofuels may have dramatic impacts on land markets. At the same time, there is a significant interest in international agricultural and forestry based carbon sequestration and greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation, which could be inexpensive, and provide revenue to developing countries and farmers. Finally, there is an increasing pressure on food and farm sectors to feed a growing world population which is expected to increase by 50% during the first half of this century (United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, 2011).

The goal of this work is to analyze land-use change at the global scale over the long run in the context of environmental and energy policies, taking into account fundamental drivers of supply and demand for land. The policies we focus on are 1) greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation through shift to cleaner agricultural production practices and increased forest carbon sequestration and 2) expanded production of biofuels. To accomplish this goal this study develops a new dynamic global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model GDyn-E-AEZ. The new model combines several existing CGE platforms - the dynamic GTAP model GDyn (Ianchovichina and McDougall, 2001), static GTAP-BIO (Birur et al., 2008), and GTAP-AEZ-GHG (Golub et al., 2009) models. New model is used to explore global interactions between biofuels and climate change mitigation policies to determine potential synergies and competition between the policies over time.


Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2012 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 15th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Geneva, Switzerland
Date: 2012
Version:
Created: Golub, A. (4/30/2012)
Updated: Golub, A. (4/30/2012)
Visits: 3,375
- Technological change
- Climate change policy
- Renewable energy


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