GTAP Resources: Resource Display
| GTAP Resource #3941 |
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"The Impacts of Alternative Regional Integration Scenarios on North African economies with a special focus on poverty" by Chemingui, Mohamed Abdelbasset Abstract This paper looks to the impacts of alternative scenarios of regional integration among countries of Nord Africa with a special focus to labor market and poverty, in a “Arab Spring” Context. In fact, the social unrest that has led to the “Arab Spring” that started in Tunisia and moves to Egypt and Libya has been mainly motivated by social tensions as result of high rates of unemployment, mainly among youth (particularly young educated people) and poverty. Even with an average rate of growth of near 5% during the last decade, North African countries were not able to tackle this unemployment challenge. Indeed, the demographic specificity of the region, with its huge number of new young qualified workers on the labor market, implies that a higher level of growth is needed to absorb this workforce. A deeper level of regional integration in North Africa is usually presented as a means to reach a significant higher level of growth to meet this challenge. The political obstacles towards the establishment of a real regional integration of Nord African countries has been seen as one among other factors which could explain the decline of the old growth models followed by these countries since their independencies. The “Arab Spring” can operate as a new context to overcome the political constraints and to deepen the regional integration process. The paper starts with a comprehensive background on economic and social achievements of these countries in terms of economic growth, diversification, employment and poverty. A second section looks closely to the trends and structure of intra-regional trade compared to the existing potential of trade. The third section presents the model and the results of the simulations while the fourth one concludes and formulates policy implications and recommendations.... |
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- Preferential trading arrangements - Economic growth - Dynamic modeling - The GTAP Data Base and extensions - Africa (North) |
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Public Access  GTAP Resource 3941 (285.6 KB) Replicated: 0 time(s)Restricted Access No documents have been attached. Special Instructions Please not that the paper is under finalization in terms of the write up. All the modelling work an the estimation of trade indicators have been finalized |
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Last Modified: 8/11/2025 9:05:27 AM
