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GTAP Resource #4221

"What might be a desirable FTA path towards global free trade for Asia-Pacific countries?"
by Lee, Hiro and Ken Itakura

In response to the lack of progress and the subsequent suspension of negotiations in the Doha Round, a number of Asia-Pacific countries have accelerated bilateral and regional trade initiatives. While global free trade is the ultimate goal, many countries strive not to be left out of the recent wave of free-trade agreements (FTAs). Indeed, all major Asia-Pacific countries are currently negotiating bilateral and/or regional FTAs. Is there an optimal FTA sequencing that would eventually lead to global free trade? Although there are a number of studies on sequencing of real and monetary integration, studies on optimal sequencing of FTAs are extremely scarce.

The objective of this paper is to investigate what might be an optimal path of FTAs for countries in the Asia-Pacific using the dynamic GTAP model calibrated to the GTAP 8 database. In particular, we shed light on the relationship between sequencing of FTAs and the extent of structural adjustments. The preliminary results suggest that the combination of the Trans-Pacific track sequencings (moving from TPP12 to enlarged TPP and FTAAP) and Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) would move the industrial structure within each member country closer to that which would prevail under global free trade, while increasing economic welfare of the member countries.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2013 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 16th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Shanghai, China
Date: 2013
Created: Lee, H. (4/15/2013)
Updated: Lee, H. (6/23/2013)
Visits: 1,659
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