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GTAP Resources: Resource Display

GTAP Resource #4311

"The Economic Impacts of Turkish Accession to the European Union"
by Philippidis, George and Orhan Karaca

Within the context of Turkish-EU27 trade relations, it is envisaged that the preserve of trade protection will be within the agro-food sectors once the commitments of the Barcelona Declaration are complete. Moreover, given the economic size of agro-food activity in Turkey, EU market integration is likely to bring notable ‘secondary’ impacts on the broader Turkish economy. To this end, a computable general equilibrium (CGE) framework is employed to assess Turkish accession to the EU. Unlike previous CGE studies, primary agriculture, fishing and food sectors are disaggregated, whilst in this study significant modelling improvements have been made to agricultural factor, input and product market mechanisms, to improve the credibility of the model results. A final distinguishing feature of this study is the construction of a realistic baseline (‘status quo’) scenario incorporating ‘up to date’ trade and domestic agricultural policy reforms prior to Turkish entry to the EU.

The results suggest that trade led growth in Turkey is moderated due to tariff liberalisation prior to EU entry, whilst Turkish real income gains are dominated by budgetary transfers from the CAP budget, which are ‘mirrored’ as EU27 costs. As expected, Turkish migration increases (reduces) EU27 (Turkish) production potential, although income per capita in both regions falls relative to the baseline.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: Other CGE Application
Status: Published
By/In: World Economy, v32(12), pp1706-1729
Date: 2009
Created: Philippidis, G. (11/24/2013)
Updated: Batta, G. (11/24/2013)
Visits: 1,150
- Agricultural policies
- Domestic policy analysis
- Preferential trading arrangements
- Europe (Eastern)
- European Union

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