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GTAP Resource #4375

"Strengthening the Resilience of the Zimbabwean Economy to Higher Food and Fuel Prices"
by Mahofa, Godfrey and Anna Strutt


Abstract
After experiencing a decade-long recession, the Zimbabwean economy is now on a recovery path. However, economic recovery efforts in the country may be hampered by international market shocks particularly increases in global food and fuel prices. In this paper, we analyse the impact of higher international prices on the Zimbabwean economy using the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model, along with MyGTAP to facilitate modelling of multiple household types. We also analyse the impacts of potential policy responses that may be implemented to help mitigate the negative impacts of higher food and fuel prices on Zimbabwe. Understanding the impact of policies in the presence of external market shocks is critical for the design of policies aimed at strengthening the economy’s resilience from external shocks.
We use the GTAP version 8.1 data base, with a base year of 2007, however, since our analysis is forward looking, we first project the world economy to 2015, simulating growth in national real GDP, population, unskilled and skilled labor, capital, agricultural land, and extractable mineral resources over this period. We pay particular attention to ensuring that the projected pattern of trade and production appropriately reflects the Zimbabwean economy. World commodity price increases are modelled from this projected 2015 database, alone and in combination with a range of policy alternatives, to evaluate impacts on the overall economy as well as for particular household-types.
To better assess the distributional impacts of commodity price increase and policy responses, we use MyGTAP to integrate Zimbabwean household survey data which supplements the standard GTAP database. This facilitates a much richer and more comprehensive analysis of increased commodity prices on different households within the economy. We split households and factors using the 2001 household income and consumption survey data from Zimstat. For consumption splits we use information on ave...


Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: Other CGE Application
Status: Not published
By/In:
Date: 2013
Version:
Created: Mahofa, G. (4/9/2014)
Updated: Mahofa, G. (4/9/2014)
Visits: 1,264
- Economic development
- Agricultural policies
- Food prices and food security
- The GTAP Data Base and extensions
- Africa (Southern)


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