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GTAP Resource #4390

"Validating CGE Models employing an Historical approach"
by van Dijk, Michiel, Geert Woltjer and George Philippidis

With the widespread usage of multi-region multi-sector CGE models in various areas of policy analysis, there is an increasing need to provide a validation of the commonly employed baseline scenario. So far, there have only been a few attempts to validate CGE model outcomes in a systematic way. This study is a first attempt to validate a multi-country, multi-sector CGE model. The paper broadly follows the ‘historical’ approach to validate the MAGNET – the GTAP based model of LEI-Wageningen University. The GTAP 6 database with base year 2001 is used to construct projections for the period 2001-2007, which are subsequently compared with historical time-series for output, value added and labour for a large number of countries and detailed sectors. Finally, regression analysis is applied to investigate if forecast performance structurally differs across sectors and countries. This information can be used as a guidance to improve modelling.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2014 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 17th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Dakar, Senegal
Date: 2014
Version: #1
Created: van Dijk, M. (4/10/2014)
Updated: Batta, G. (4/22/2014)
Visits: 1,593
- Dynamic modeling
- Model validation and sensitivity analysis
- Other data bases and data issues

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