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GTAP Resource #4406

"What Has Regionalism Left to Multilateralism to Negotiate On? Trade and Protection Effects of a Decade of Preferential Trade Agreements"
by Bureau, Christophe, Houssein Guimbard and Sebastien Jean

This paper aims at providing a comprehensive and factual picture of the phenomenon of regionalism during the last decade, starting in 2001. One objective is to assess the actual importance of PTAs going beyond analyses based on the number of agreements discussed or envisaged. The detailed historical dataset makes it possible to capture the impacts of the (often progressive) implementation of the PTAs that have been decided or implemented since the beginning of the Doha Round, in terms of product and country coverage and of their depth in terms of preferential margins. One important characteristic of the approach is that it is based on exhaustive and consistent data at a very detailed level. Our effort to match detailed data on bilateral tariffs, bilateral trade flows and PTAs tariff concessions and quotas results in a very large database. It makes it possible to investigate in detail the tariff protection for each product at the 6 digit level of the United Nations harmonized system (hereafter HS6). These combined data at four benchmark years since 2001 make it possible to explore the actual lowering of tariffs that results from the implementation of signed PTAs and to project their impact when fully implemented. We provide some analyses of the geography of concessions, their uneven depth and scope across sectors and steps of the value chain, as well as their economic value in terms of duties paid and tariff revenues.

Another objective is to put in perspective the potential impact of a Doha agreement in a world where PTAs currently signed will be fully implemented. Taking the most recent proposals tabled under the DDA in terms of market access, applying to bound duties and comparing the result to the level of applied tariffs gives an information on the mercantilist "value" of a Doha Agreement. This gives a picture of the potential market access gains that questions some of the simulations on the basis of past benchmarks. We also extend the assessment so as t...

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2014 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 17th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Dakar, Senegal
Date: 2014
Version: 0_preliminary
Created: Jean, S. (4/12/2014)
Updated: Jean, S. (6/18/2014)
Visits: 1,463
- Multilateral trade negotiations
- Preferential trading arrangements

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Special Instructions
This file only contains the introduction, the paper is being revamped – a new version will be posted soon

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