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GTAP Resource #4494

"Competitiveness modelling for air quality policies in the EU"
by Abrell, Jan, Frederik Neuwahl, Bert Saveyn, Zoi Vrontisi and Fabian Wagner


Abstract
On 19/12/2013, European Commission (EC) adopted the "The Clean Air Policy Package", where it proposes new air quality objectives for the period up to 2030. Further, on 22/01/2014 the EC presented the "2030 Framework for Climate and Energy Policies" which sets a target of 40% Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emission reduction in 2030 compared to 1990. Before the European Commission can propose a new initiative, it mandatorily has to conduct an Impact Assessment, evaluating the potential economic, social and environmental consequences. This paper explains in detail the modelling done with a Computable General Equilibrium model, GEM-E3, for the Impact Assessments accompanying these two recent EU policy proposals by the EC. In general the paper illustrates how quantitative modelling can directly contribute to real world policy decisions.

The GEM-E3 model is a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model which covers the interactions between the economy, the energy system and the environment. The model is calibrated to the 2004 base year of the GTAP 8 database. The data is aggregated to 21 sectors (of which 3 energy resource sectors and 7 energy intensive sectors), and complemented with 10 power technologies. All 28 EU Member States are represented individually as well as the USA, Canada, Brazil, China, India, Japan, Australia & New Zealand, and Russia. The remaining countries are aggregated in a European and a non-European block. The six Kyoto GHG represented are CO2, SF6, PFC, HFC, CH4, and N2O.

A typical Impact Assessment of the EC is supported quantitatively by a modelling toolbox, consisting of various (often highly specialized) model types, which are sometimes connected with a soft link. In the context of the two aforementioned proposals the most important models are an EU and a global energy system model (PRIMES and POLES, respectively) and an air pollution mitigation model (GAINS). The two energy system models feed the GEM-E3 model with the deployment r...


Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2014 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 17th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Dakar, Senegal
Date: 2014
Version: Draft
Created: Saveyn, B. (4/15/2014)
Updated: Saveyn, B. (6/12/2014)
Visits: 2,184
- Baseline development
- Climate change policy
- Trade and the environment
- Domestic policy analysis
- European Union


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