Resource Center

Advanced Search
Technical Papers
Working Papers
Research Memoranda
GTAP-L Mailing List
GTAP FAQs
CGE Books/Articles
Important References
Submit New Resource

GTAP Resources: Resource Display

GTAP Resource #4557

"New Trade Policy of EU: Implications for LDCs"
by Rahman, Masud and Cheong Inkyo


Abstract
The European Union (EU) has notified its revised Generalized System of Preference (GSP) on 31 October, 2012 which will come into effect from 1 January, 2014. The EU is also in the process of, or contemplating, to sign Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with many developing countries. Recently, EU has officially announced initiation of FTA negotiations with USA. Such preferential tariff arrangements could lead to significant erosion of preferences enjoyed currently by the Least Developed Countries (LDCs). In this backdrop, the main objective of the present study is to investigate the economic impacts originating from preference erosion in the EU market which could potentially affect LDCs in general, Bangladesh in particular. In this context, a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis has been developed by using the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model and database to explore the aggregate impact of the preferential erosion as well as sectoral implications for which different partial equilibrium analyses were used. The analysis evince that if the EU eliminates all tariffs for Pakistan, India and Vietnam, Bangladesh's real GDP could decrease by 0.27 per cent whilst welfare loss could be to the tune of US$ 54 million. Total exports to the EU will be reduced by 0.18 per cent; consequently, Bangladesh’s terms of trade and exports of textiles and clothing could be fall by about 1 percent. The product level disaggregated analysis using RCA and unit price of major items also indicate that a number of products including textiles and clothing will be confronted with formidable market access difficulties in the EU.

Key Words: Revised GSP; FTA; EU; GTAP; LDCs; Bangladesh; Pakistan; India; ASEAN.




Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: Other CGE Application
Status: Published
By/In: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL LOGISTICS AND TRADE
Date: 2014
Version: Volume 12, Number 1, April 2014, pp. 43~73
Created: Rahman, M. (5/22/2014)
Updated: Rahman, M. (5/22/2014)
Visits: 767
- Dynamic modeling
- Multilateral trade negotiations
- Preferential trading arrangements
- Trade in textiles and wearing apparel
- Asia (East)
- Asia (South-Central)
- European Union


Attachments
If you have trouble accessing any of the attachments below due to disability, please contact the authors listed above.


Public Access
No documents have been attached.

Restricted Access
No documents have been attached.


Special Instructions
No instructions have been specified.


Comments (0 posted)
You must log in before entering comments.

No comments have been posted.