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GTAP Resource #4664

"The Economic Value of Weather Forecasts: Stochastic Economy-Wide Analysis for East Africa"
by Rodrigues, Joao, James Thurlow, Claudia Ringler, Ricky Robertson and Tingju Zhu

Climate change has raised interest in decision-making under conditions of uncertainty. This is particularly true in Eastern and Southern Africa, where the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, particularly droughts, as well as regular fluctuations in rainfall and temperatures have already had discernable and adverse effects on agricultural productivity. This uncertainty makes reducing poverty in one of the world’s most food insecure regions even more challenging.

Investments in rain-fed agriculture, which employs most of the region’s poor, have historically focused on raising yields through the provision of modern technologies (seeds and fertilizer) to smallholder farmers. However, there is growing interest in providing weather forecast information to farmers in order to build resilience in the food system, i.e., by allowing farmers to adapt land allocations and farming practices to anticipated weather. The literature currently focuses on finding innovative ways to convey climate information to farmers. Less attention is given to estimating the economic returns to investments in weather forecasts for developing countries. Without this information it is difficult to determine whether, given limited resources, new investments in climate information and dissemination systems are preferable to investments aimed at, for example, raising agricultural productivity.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2015 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 18th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Melbourne, Australia
Date: 2015
Created: Rodrigues, J. (4/13/2015)
Updated: Rodrigues, J. (4/14/2015)
Visits: 979
- Climate change policy
- Climate impacts
- Africa (East)
- Africa (Southern)

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