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GTAP Resources: Resource Display

GTAP Resource #4927

"Climate change and Canada in 2030: A computable general equilibrium analysis"
by Jacobs, Henry


Abstract
This study analyzes the effects of climate change on Canada's output, trade and welfare in 2010-2030 and compares it with the more severe effects of 2010-2050. The study describes a five-region world: Canada, other temperate high income, tropical high income, temperate low income, and tropical low income.

The model is the standard, static GTAP model, with three factors of production (land, labor, and capital), and standard GTAP closures with the exception that countries are linked only through trade, and not through investment or savings flows.

The study is carried out by describing a baseline scenario based on the Solow growth model with factor-neutral TFP gains. It describes the world in 2030 and 2050 using projections for factor supplies, population and real GDP from SSP2. The model then solves for the TFP that replicates the targeted real GDP projections. Two climate change scenarios describe the same baseline projections, plus yield changes for wheat, rice and maize. Yield shocks are from the meta-analysis of crop yield studies by Challinor et al. (2013). A sensitivity analysis finds robust welfare conclusions as the Armington import demand elasticity is increased and decreased by one-third.

The key conclusions are:

For 2030:
- Yield changes will have economy-wide effects due to resource competition and rising export demand for manufactures
- Canadian welfare increases entirely due to benefits to its terms of trade
- Canada’s real GDP shrinks modestly

For 2050:
- Same pattern of effects, but to a greater degree

Important caveats to this study are that the scope of climate change impacts are limited to yield shocks, and do not account for the potentially negative effects of climate change and greater climate variability on e.g., infrastructure and human health and productivity. Additionally, the study assumes only one land type.


Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2016 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 19th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Washington DC, USA
Date: 2016
Version:
Created: Jacobs, H. (4/12/2016)
Updated: Jacobs, H. (4/15/2017)
Visits: 2,214
- Climate change policy
- Climate impacts
- North America


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Public Access
  File format Climate Change in Canada in 2011-2030, and 2011-2050  (1.7 MB)   Replicated: 0 time(s)


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