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GTAP Resource #5260

"A Shared Socio-economic Pathway Approach to Assessing the Future of the New Zealand Forest Sector"
by Daigneault, Adam


Abstract
This analysis focuses on impacts of climate and socio-economic change through 2100 on the New Zealand forest sector. The industry is based around sustainably managed exotic plantation forests, covering 1.8 million hectares, or 7% of New Zealand's land area. Although New Zealand is a small player in the global forestry industry, contributing just over 1% of the world's total industrial wood supply, it a significant industry in New Zealand. Economy-wise, the sector accounts for 3% of New Zealand's GDP and wood products are New Zealand's third largest export, behind dairy and meat. Furthermore, 30% of the country is covered in forest which sequesters about 20 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent, (MtCO-e/yr), thus reducing the country’s total GHG emissions by about 1/3.

We use a global integrated assessment model that is focused on the land use sector to model 20 different scenarios that vary climate and socio-economic pathways to analyze the potential impacts on the New Zealand forest sector. The dynamic model includes a global CGE model, a global timber supply model, and a detailed New Zealand land-use sector model that utilizes agriculture and forest production models that estimate forest, pasture, and livestock yields under varying climatic conditions. Key outputs include land use area, forest carbon sequestration, timber harvest, and management regime.This study provides insight on the key drivers that are most likely to affect New Zealand’s forest sector, including population change, commodity prices, agricultural yields, and pricing land-based GHG emissions. It also offers valuable insight on possible methods to utilize ‘downscaled’ global climate projections and region-specific socio-economic assumptions into national and sub-national scale integrated assessments.


Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2017 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 20th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, West Lafayette, IN, USA
Date: 2017
Version: 0.1
Created: Daigneault, A. (4/13/2017)
Updated: Daigneault, A. (4/13/2017)
Visits: 1,901
- Dynamic modeling
- Climate change policy
- Climate impacts
- Land use
- Water availability
- Agricultural policies
- Domestic policy analysis
- Oceania


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