GTAP Resources: Resource Display
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"The Impact of the Libya Crisis on the Tunisian Economy" by Chemingui, Mohamed Abdelbasset Abstract This paper presents the results of a computable general equilibrium model developed to estimate the macroeconomic and fiscal impacts of the Libyan crisis on the Tunisian economy. The model captures five different effects of the Libyan crisis on the Tunisian economy: i) the impact of the presence of Libyans in Tunisia on aggregate demand; ii) the effect of the crisis on remittances of Tunisian workers in Libya; iii) the impact of the deteriorating business environment on private investments; iv) the consequences of domestic and regional security challenges on the tourism sector and v) the impact of the crisis on government security spending. Our results suggest that the Libyan crisis is responsible for 24% of the deceleration of economic growth in Tunisia during the 2011-2015 period. This is equivalent to a welfare loss of 8.8 billions of Tunisian dinars (TND) or 880 million USD per year or about 2% of 2015 GDP per year. These impacts are mainly driven by the effects of the crisis on private investment and tourism through their consequence on investor confidence and international tourists demand for Tunisian tourism services. In fact, the fall in investments, (resp. tourism) explains 60 percent (resp. 36 percent) of the overall impact of the crisis. The fall of remittances from Libya, the increased government spending on security and the weakened purchasing power of Libyan residents and visitors account respectively for 1.4 percent, 1.2 percent and 0.8 percent of the estimated impact. The fiscal cost of the Libyan crisis (increased government security spending and reduced tax revenues) is estimated at 5.8 billion of Dinars over the 2011-2015 period (580 million USD per year, which is equivalent to 1.36% of 2015 GDP per year). |
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- Dynamic modeling - Economic crisis - Other data bases and data issues - Africa (North) |
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Public Access  GTAP Resource 5269 (371.1 KB) Replicated: 0 time(s)Restricted Access No documents have been attached. Special Instructions No instructions have been specified. |
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Last Modified: 8/11/2025 9:05:27 AM
