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GTAP Resource #5305

"Potential Costs of U.S. Withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership"
by Lee, Hiro and Ken Itakura

The U.S. withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) has affected the prospects of mega-regional trade agreements (MRTAs) in the transpacific and transatlantic. In the Asian Pacific, negotiations for the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) might accelerate. It is also plausible that 11 other TPP signatories decide to implement TPP sans US. The objective of this paper is to estimate economic welfare effects of alternative sequencings of MRTAs for the Asia-Pacific countries using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Our results suggest that the United States loses an opportunity to gain 0.7% in its economic welfare by 2034 when the TPP is never implemented, and that its welfare gain will be reduced by 0.3 percentage point when its participation in the TPP is delayed by five years.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2017 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 20th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, West Lafayette, IN, USA
Date: 2017
Version: 1
Created: Lee, H. (4/14/2017)
Updated: Lee, H. (4/14/2017)
Visits: 1,393
- Preferential trading arrangements
- Asia (East)
- Asia (Southeast)
- North America

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