GTAP Resources: Resource Display
| GTAP Resource #5652 |
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"Russian Roulette at the Trade Table: A specific factors CGE analysis of an agri-food import ban" by Boulanger, Pierre, Hasan Dudu, Emanuele Ferrari and George Philippidis Abstract In August 2014, Russia imposed a one year import ban on most agri-food products from countries enforcing Ukraine-related sanctions against Russia. A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model is used to simulate the effects of this retaliatory policy on Russia itself, the European Union (EU) and a selection of key trade partners. Sensitivity analysis of factor mobility is performed to characterise the short- and long-term response to the disruption in trade, whilst a carefully designed baseline is implemented to correctly isolate the economic impacts of the ban. In the short term, due to high factor immobility, production has very little leeway to adjust, provoking notable variations in prices which absorb most of the import ban shock. At the EU level, price and production decrease by about 1.9% and 0.3% respectively, while in the longer term (if the ban is maintained beyond one year) the corresponding estimates are 1.4% and 1.2%, respectively. Not surprisingly, the results indicate that Russia bears the highest welfare loss (about 3.4 billion euros) while the EU recovers around 25% of its lost trade volume with Russia through expansion of exports to other markets. |
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- Baseline development - Agricultural policies - Domestic policy analysis - Europe (Eastern) - European Union |
| Attachments |
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Public Access No documents have been attached. Restricted Access No documents have been attached. Special Instructions No instructions have been specified. |
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Last Modified: 9/15/2023 1:05:45 PM
