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GTAP Resource #5689

"Statistical Emulators of Irrigated Crop Yields and Irrigation Water Requirements"
by Blanc, Elodie


Abstract
This study provides statistical emulators of global by gridded crop models included in the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project Fast Track project to estimate irrigated crop yields and associated irrigation water withdrawals simulated at the grid cell level. An ensemble of crop model simulations is used to build a panel of monthly summer weather variables and corresponding annual yields and irrigation water withdrawals from five gridded crop models. This dataset is then used to estimate crop-specific response functions for each crop model. The average normalized root mean square errors for the response functions range from 3% to 6% for irrigated yields and 2% to 8% for irrigated water withdrawal. Further in- and out-of-sample validation exercises confirm that the statistical emulators are able to replicate the crop models’ spatial patterns of irrigated crop yields and irrigation water withdrawals reasonably well, both in levels and in terms of changes overtime, although accuracy varies by model and by region. The emulators estimated in this study therefore provides a reliable and computationally efficient alternative to global gridded crop yield models.


Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2019 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 22nd Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Warsaw, Poland
Date: 2019
Version:
Created: Blanc, E. (3/1/2019)
Updated: Blanc, E. (3/1/2019)
Visits: 529
- Climate impacts
- Land use
- Not Applicable


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  File format GTAP Resource 5689  (12.5 MB)   Replicated: 0 time(s)


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