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GTAP Resource #5736

"Agricultural impacts of global warming"
by Zanetti De Lima, Cicero, Jonathan Buzan, Fran Moore, Uris Lantz Baldos, Matthew Huber and Thomas Hertel

Here we analyze the consequences of global warming for agricultural crop yields and the people employed in their production using a global economic model with explicit treatment of the physiological impacts of heat stress on humans ability to work. The agricultural impacts literature has mostly focused on the effects of climate change on crop yields. However, we find that global labor force impacts dominate. This dominance is particularly striking at intermediate levels of warming (+2C to +4 C relative to 1986-2005) where apparent welfare gains in some regions are reversed, becoming significant losses once labor force impacts are considered. The losses are particularly pronounced in Africa, South- and Southeast Asia. In those regions, heat stress with 3C global warming above the 1986-2005 baseline means labor capacity in agriculture could fall by 20 – 30%, boosting food prices and requiring much higher levels of employment in the farm sector.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2019 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 22nd Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Warsaw, Poland
Date: 2019
Version: 1
Created: Zanetti De Lima, C. (4/10/2019)
Updated: Zanetti De Lima, C. (3/9/2021)
Visits: 3,216
- Climate impacts
- Economic growth
- Health
- Labor market issues

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Comments (1 posted)
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Posted by: Zhao, Xin   12/15/2021 4:36:00 PM
Hi Cicero, I was directed to here by the link in the ERL paper. Great study. Are the data still available? Thanks, Xin