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GTAP Resources: Resource Display

GTAP Resource #6521

"Private Sector Alignment with the European Green Deal in the Western Balkans"
by Sahin, Sebnem


Abstract
The aim of this paper is to estimate how the role of the private sector in the Western Balkans aligns with the European Green Deal. For this purpose, we developed an economy-wide Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model based on the net economic and environmental benefits obtained from climate finance projects in North Macedonia. We focus on two types of investments: those that target green/digital startups and innovative SMEs (MSME Fund), and others that support large enterprises and infrastructure PPP SPVs (Special Purpose Vehicle) in European Green Deal (EGD) sectors (GSIF).

Our analysis focuses on the time frame 2023-2050; the rate of return of those two investments at the end of 5 cycles of investment is around 1.15 to 1.16 for the MSME and GSIF. Both Funds contribute towards decoupling in the approach to 2050. GDP increases by around 1.22 and 2.67 percentage points above the baseline in 2050 while CO2 emissions decrease by about 5.28 and 6.6 (under MSME and GSIF respectively). Overall effects on GDP components (consumption, exports, imports) are positive and higher for GSIF which is a larger fund than MSME.
The model estimates a cross-economic increase by 0.69% (or 9,468 jobs) for the MSME Fund and a 1.36% increase (or 18,648 jobs) for the GSIF when above the baseline in 2050. This estimate includes a 0.38% increase in employment in the “sectors within the MSME portfolio”, hence an additional 867 jobs above the baseline in 2050. Regarding the “sectors within the GSIF portfolio”, the model estimates a 1.35% increase in employment, equivalent of 17,867 new jobs in 2050 compared to the baseline.


Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2022 Conference Paper
Status: Not published
By/In: Presented during the 25th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis (Virtual Conference)
Date: 2022
Version: April
Created: Sahin, S. (4/12/2022)
Updated: Sahin, S. (6/8/2022)
Visits: 664
- Dynamic modeling
- Climate change policy
- Foreign direct investment
- Europe (Southern)


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Comments (1 posted)
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Posted by: Sahin, Sebnem   4/12/2022 7:22:00 PM
Advances the climate policy debate.