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GTAP Resources: Resource Display

GTAP Resource #6911

"What do GTAP databases tell us about technologies for industries and regions?"
by Dixon, Peter and Maureen Rimmer


Abstract
We conduct an historical simulation from 2004 to 2014 with a 57-commodity, 13-region version of the GTAP model. The simulation generates estimates of changes in several sets of unobservable variables by calculating the changes required to connect GTAP databases for the two years.

The historical simulation reported here produces estimates of movements between 2004 and 2014 in:
- technologies disaggregated by industry, region and input; and
- preferences disaggregated by imported and domestic commodity, region and agent (households, government and investors).

These estimates are informed by data on movements between the two years in:
- real GDP, capital stock and employment for each region, and employment disaggregated for selected regions into skilled and unskilled;
- values in each region of expenditures by households, governments and investors disaggregated by commodity and source (imported or domestic);
- values in each region of expenditures on intermediate inputs disaggregated by commodity and source;
- values in each region of expenditure on labour and on capital aggregated over industries;
- values of exports from each region disaggregated by commodity;
- values of margins supplied from each region to facilitate international trade;
- the price index for investment in each region; and
- quantities of world output for 35 out of the 57 GTAP commodities.

In this paper, we analyse technology results. These are encouraging. They are interpretable in terms of world-wide productivity by commodity, macro productivity by region, and Balassa-Samuelson effects.

In baseline forecasting, technology and preference trends from an historical simulation can add industry texture.


Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2023 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented during the 26th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis (Bordeaux, France)
Date: 2023
Version:
Created: Dixon, P. (4/14/2023)
Updated: Dixon, P. (4/14/2023)
Visits: 373
- Baseline development
- Dynamic modeling
- Model validation and sensitivity analysis
- GTAP Data Base and extensions
- Technological change


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