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GTAP Resources: Resource Display

GTAP Resource #6988

"Medium-term macroeconomic effects of Russia's War in Ukraine and how it affects energy security and global emission targets"
by Rojas-Romagosa, Hugo

Russia's War in Ukraine has disrupted the supply of natural gas for many European countries triggering an energy crisis and affecting energy security. We simulate the medium-term effects of these trade disruptions and find that Russia's real GDP losses are severe, while those European countries more dependent on Russian natural gas are also affected but to a lesser extent. Even though fossil fuel consumption and emissions are reduced as a consequence, these reductions are relatively small compared to the required mitigation efforts under Europe's nationally determined contributions (NDCs). Moreover, achieving these NDCs has become costlier after Russia's War in Ukraine following the real GDP reductions in Europe and lost access to relatively cheap Russian pipeline natural gas imports. We also find that constructing a new Russian pipeline to China does not provide significant macroeconomic benefits for either country.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2023 Conference Paper
Status: Not published
By/In: Presented during the 26th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis (Bordeaux, France)
Date: 2023
Version: Draft version, do not cite
Created: Rojas-Romagosa, H. (4/15/2023)
Updated: Rojas-Romagosa, H. (4/15/2023)
Visits: 292
- Climate change policy
- Trade and the environment
- Supply chains
- Europe (Eastern)
- Europe (Northern)
- Europe (Southern)
- Europe (Western)
- European Union

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