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GTAP Resource #7038

"Assessing inequality and poverty in long-term growth projections: A general equilibrium analysis for six developing countries"
by Britz, Wolfgang, Yaghoob Jafari, Olexandr Nekhay and Roberto Roson

Most projections of long-term economic development, such as the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios in climate change research, do not quantify future effects on income distribution and poverty. To address this research gap, we present some numerical simulations based on a recursive-dynamic general equilibrium model with household details, focusing on relative and absolute poverty in six developing countries: Albania, Bolivia, Ethiopia, Malawi, Nicaragua, and Vietnam. The results under the SSP2 reference scenario suggest that the exogenously projected gross domestic product (GDP) and population growth, combined with long-term structural change, produce lower absolute but higher relative poverty. An alternative scenario of stronger trade integration further amplifies the impact on income inequality. Indeed, more international trade tends to increase capital income, which mainly benefits rich households, but generally decreases agricultural earnings, which are important for rural poor households.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: Other CGE Application
Status: Published
By/In: Economic Modelling, Volume 117
Date: 2022
Version: final
Created: Jafari, Y. (5/29/2023)
Updated: Batta, G. (5/29/2023)
Visits: 238
- Advances in quantitative methods
- Economic analysis of poverty
- Economic growth
- Bridging CGE and new quantitative trade (NQT) literature

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