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GTAP Resource #7205

"Assessing global and sub-global socioeconomic transition uncertainty for climate management and risk analyses"
by Morris, Jennifer, Steven Rose and Angelo Gurgel

There is an absence of quantitative information regarding socioeconomic transformation uncertainty and risk relevant to policymakers and planning. To address this need, we develop a probabilistic coupled human-natural system model to explore parametric and deep climate policy uncertainties. We derive distributions for potential economies without and with additional climate policy, and with alternative decarbonization conditions. Results suggest that uncertainty about the size of economies and their make-up is substantial and important to consider, with both climate policy and non-policy uncertainties representing substantive risks for countries, sectors, and companies, and broad ranges of potential economies consistent with any global emissions pathway.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2024 Conference Paper
Status: Not published
By/In: Presented during the 27th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis (Fort Collins, Colorado, USA)
Date: 2024
Version: 1
Created: Morris, J. (4/12/2024)
Updated: Morris, J. (5/29/2024)
Visits: 104
- Climate change policy
- Advances in quantitative methods
- Partial and general equilibrium models

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