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GTAP Resource #7250

"Potential Economic Impacts of African Swine Fever in Brazil"
by Menezes, Tais, Amanda M. Countryman and Kelsey Story

African Swine Fever (ASF) is a highly contagious disease that can devastate hog herds and disrupt global pork markets. As a top-five pork exporter, Brazil plays a significant role in world pork supply. This paper investigates the potential economic impacts of a hypothetical ASF outbreak in Brazil using a computable general equilibrium modeling framework. Two scenarios are considered: a 4% production decrease with a 20% export reduction (Scenario I), and an 8% production decrease with a 40% export reduction (Scenario II). Results indicate that an outbreak would substantially reduce Brazilian hog and pork production, raise domestic pork prices, and increase global pork prices. While some countries like the U.S. and Europe could see increased pork exports, many regions would experience welfare losses due to factors such as reduced savings and investment or allocative inefficiency. Brazil would suffer welfare losses from deteriorating terms of trade. Understanding the potential economic consequences can help stakeholders prepare for the possibility of an ASF outbreak in Brazil.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2024 Conference Paper
Status: Not published
By/In: Presented during the 27th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis (Fort Collins, Colorado, USA)
Date: 2024
Created: Menezes, T. (4/14/2024)
Updated: Menezes, T. (4/14/2024)
Visits: 67
- Agricultural policies
- Non-Tariff barriers
- South America

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