GTAP Resources: Resource Display
| GTAP Resource #7297 |
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"The impact of the African Continental Free Trade Area on Nigeria's agri-food sector" by Omoju, Oluwasola Emmanuel, Emily Edoisa Ikhide, Augustine C. Osigwe and Rifkatu Nghargbu Abstract The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is aimed at boosting intra-African trade and promoting regional development. However, the distribution of its benefits and costs are uneven, and it presents opportunities and threats to different sectors of the economy. Hence, this paper assesses the impact of the AfCFTA on the Nigerian economy, particularly focusing on the agri-food sectors. Using DEMETRA model and a 2019 SAM, the paper assesses the impacts of the AfCFTA. The analysis shows that the AfCFTA has a very small impact on GDP, and the impact is much larger under the tariff and NTM scenarios than under the tariff only scenario. Contrary to expectations, government revenue increase significantly as revenue from other sources offset the fall in customs revenue, and this effect is larger under the intermediate input liberalisation schedule. The outputs of industry, utilities, construction, services and agriculture sectors increase while outputs of public services, extractive and processed food sectors reduce. The reduction in the output of the processed food sector leads to an increase in imports of processed food commodities. The increase in output is bigger under the agricultural trade liberalisation schedule. The employment effects also mirror the output effect, with sectors that experience output contraction also experiencing fall in employment and vice versa. Low-skilled labour will be mostly affected. The welfare impact is higher for rural households compared to urban households. For urban households, some outlier households face some welfare losses in 2025 and 2030. But the negative welfare effects turn positive in the transition to 2035 as the AfCFTA benefits expand. Based on the findings of the study, it is recommended that complementary policies be implemented to stimulate growth. Policies to protect key sectors that are negatively affected, including processed food sector, be implemented. |
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- Non-Tariff barriers - Preferential trading arrangements - Dynamic modeling - Partial and general equilibrium models - Africa (West) |
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Public Access  Paper (1.5 MB) Replicated: 0 time(s)Restricted Access No documents have been attached. Special Instructions No instructions have been specified. |
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Last Modified: 9/15/2023 2:05:45 PM
