GTAP Resources: Resource Display
| GTAP Resource #7465 |
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"Analyzing the Agricultural Risks of Meeting the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C and 2°C Targets in China" by Gan, Tao, Wei Xie, Tariq Ali, Qinyu Deng and Qiang Ji Abstract China’s agriculture faces dual risks from climate change and the transition to low-carbon agriculture, which has not been adequately studied in the literature. This study fills this research gap by assessing climate and transition risks under the 1.5°C and 2°C scenarios. Through meta-analysis, we derived loss functions for climate change impacts on China’s staple crops and then used temperature projections to estimate yield losses across various scenarios. Our results indicate that yield losses are highest in the absence of climate action and that losses under the 2°C scenario exceed those under the 1.5°C scenario. Furthermore, examining three key transition policies to low-carbon agriculture—rising costs of agricultural greenhouse gas reductions, occupation of arable land for solar energy infrastructure, and increased bioenergy-driven food demand—reveals potential risks to food security. Using an economic (GTAP-E) model, we compared climate and transition risks and found that under the 2°C scenario, less ambitious climate targets lead to lower transition risks but higher climate risks. In contrast, under the 1.5°C scenario, more ambitious climate targets result in higher transition risks but lower climate risks. Overall, the aggregate risk in the 2°C scenario was lower than that in the 1.5°C scenario. These findings highlight the need for policymakers to comprehensively evaluate these risks to ensure food security during a low-carbon transition. |
| Resource Details (Export Citation) | GTAP Keywords | ||||||||||||||||
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- Climate change policy - Climate impacts - GTAP Data Base and extensions - Asia (East) |
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If you have trouble accessing any of the attachments below due to disability, please contact the authors listed above.
Public Access  Paper (2.4 MB) Replicated: 0 time(s)Restricted Access No documents have been attached. Special Instructions No instructions have been specified. |
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Last Modified: 9/15/2023 2:05:45 PM
