GTAP Resources: Resource Display
| GTAP Resource #7510 |
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"A General Equilibrium Analysis of the EU regulations on South Africa’s Citrus Industry" by Sibiya, Phelelani, Antti Simola and Lerato Phali Abstract Abstract Eight rounds of multilateral liberalization under the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) led to substantially lower tariffs rates in global trade. Over the past two decades, applied tariffs have been halved on average globally. The reduction in global tariffs over the past few decades has shifted the focus of trade policy research to better understanding the impacts of non-tariff measures (NTMs), including their potential to nullify the benefits of tariff liberalization. NTMs tend to be more common in agriculture than in other sectors. Currently there is an ongoing trade dispute between South Africa and the European Union (EU) regarding trade regulations imposed by EU on South Africa’s citrus exports. Recent SPS regulations by the European Union on citrus imports from South Africa, aimed at managing pests like the False Codling Moth and citrus black spot, have led to higher compliance costs and trade tensions. While partial equilibrium studies have explored the direct trade effects, this study examines the broader, economy-wide impact of these measures. Using the standard GTAP computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and SplitCom for sectoral disaggregation, we simulate the macroeconomic effects of EU citrus regulations. Econometric estimates from a gravity model, based on a UNCTAD-led NTMs database, are converted into ad valorem equivalents and incorporated into the CGE framework. Three policy simulations are conducted: implementation of EU SPS rules, export market diversification, and price adjustments due to rising costs. Preliminary expectations point to GDP decline, rising agricultural unemployment, and reduced export competitiveness, with potential implications for rural incomes and food security. The study aims to inform trade policy responses and agricultural adaptation strategies. Key words: CGE, Non-tariff measures, EU citrus regulations |
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- Trade and the environment - Agricultural policies - Non-Tariff barriers - Africa (Southern) - Europe (Western) |
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Public Access  Paper (203.4 KB) Replicated: 0 time(s)Restricted Access No documents have been attached. Special Instructions No instructions have been specified. |
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Last Modified: 9/15/2023 2:05:45 PM
