GTAP Resources: Resource Display
| GTAP Resource #7528 |
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"Economy-wide implications of climate change-induced malaria in Kenya: Linking a demographic module to a dynamic CGE model" by Elnour, Zuhal, Harald Grethe, Khalid Siddig and Stephen Munga Abstract Climate change is expected to increase the burden of malaria in Kenya by reshaping the environment in ways that affect mosquito populations and disease transmission. These changes risk undermining recent gains in malaria control and could place significant pressure on both the health sector and the whole economy. This study applies an integrated modelling framework to explore the medium- and long-term economic impacts of climate-related malaria in Kenya. It combines a demographic module, which captures malaria-related mortality by age and gender, with a recursive-dynamic single-country Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model calibrated to Kenya’s 2022 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM). The model depicts how malaria affects labour supply and productivity, considering different epidemiological zones. In addition to the baseline scenario, two counterfactual scenarios are developed, capturing changes in mortality and morbidity (among adults and children) determined using data generated by malaria forecasting and hydrometeorological models. The findings indicate substantial adverse effects on economic growth and household welfare, particularly for the most vulnerable communities. Quantifying these risks offers valuable insights for Kenya's climate adaptation and malaria control and elimination strategies. |
| Resource Details (Export Citation) | GTAP Keywords | ||||||||||||||||
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- Climate impacts - Sustainable development - Demographics - Health - Dynamic modeling - Model extension/development - Africa (East) |
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Public Access  Paper (160.0 KB) Replicated: 0 time(s)Restricted Access No documents have been attached. Special Instructions No instructions have been specified. |
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Last Modified: 9/15/2023 2:05:45 PM
